Liver fibrosis assessed via non-invasive tests is associated with incident heart failure in a general population cohort.

AIMS: To determine whether liver fibrosis is associated with heart failure in a general population cohort, and if genetic polymorphisms (PNPLA3 rs738409; TM6SF2 rs58542926), linked to increased risk of liver fibrosis and decreased risk of coronary artery disease, modify this association. METHODS: Using UK Biobank data, we prospectively examined the relationship between non-invasive fibrosis markers [NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and AST to platelet ratio index (APRI)] and incident hospitalization/death from heart failure (n=413,860). Cox-regression estimated hazard ratios (HR) for incident heart failure. Effects of PNPLA3 and TM6SF2 on the association between liver fibrosis and heart failure were estimated by stratifying for genotype, and testing for an interaction between genotype and liver fibrosis using a likelihood ratio test. RESULTS: 12,527 incident cases of heart failure occurred over a median of 10.7 years. Liver fibrosis was associated with an increased risk of hospitalization or death from heart failure (multivariable adjusted high risk NFS score HR 1.59 [1.47-1.76], p<0.0001; FIB-4 HR 1.69 [1.55-1.84], p<0.0001; APRI HR 1.85 [1.56-2.19], p<0.0001; combined fibrosis scores HR 1.90 [1.44-2.49], p<0.0001). These associations persisted for people with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), MASLD with alcohol consumption (Met-ALD) and harmful alcohol consumption. PNPLA3 rs738409 GG and TM6SF2 rs58542926 TT did not attenuate the positive association between fibrosis markers and heart failure. For PNPLA3 a statistically significant interaction was found between PNPLA3 rs738409, FIB-4, APRI score and heart failure. CONCLUSION: In the general population, serum markers of liver fibrosis are associated with increased hospitalization/death from heart failure. Genetic polymorphisms associated with liver fibrosis were not positively associated with elevated heart failure risk.

Examining the effectiveness of the Gateway conditional caution on health and well-being of young adults committing low-level offences: a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Young adults who commit low-level offences commonly have a range of health and social needs and are significantly over-represented in the criminal justice system. These young adults may need to attend court and potentially receive penalties including imprisonment. Alternative routes exist, which can help address the underlying causes of offending. Some feel more should be done to help young adults entering the criminal justice system. The Gateway programme was a type of out-of-court disposal developed by Hampshire Constabulary, which aimed to address the complex needs of young adults who commit low-level crimes. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the Gateway programme, issued as a conditional caution, compared with usual process. METHODS: The Gateway study was a pragmatic, parallel-group, superiority randomised controlled trial that recruited young adults who had committed a low-level offence from four sites covering Hampshire and Isle of Wight. The primary outcome was mental health and well-being measured using the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale. Secondary outcomes were quality of life, alcohol and drug use, and recidivism. Outcomes were measured at 4, 16 and 52 weeks postrandomisation. RESULTS: Due to issues with retention of participants and low data collection rates, recruitment ended early, with 191 eligible participants randomised (Gateway 109; usual process 82). The primary outcome was obtained for 93 (48.7%) participants at 4 weeks, 93 (48.7%) at 16 weeks and 43 (22.5%) at 1 year. The high attrition rates meant that effectiveness could not be assessed as planned. CONCLUSIONS: Gateway is the first trial in a UK police setting to have a health-related primary outcome requiring individual data collection, rather than focusing solely on recidivism. We demonstrated that it is possible to recruit and randomise from the study population, however follow-up rates were low. Further work is needed to identify ways to facilitate engagement between researchers and vulnerable populations to collect data. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN11888938.

Barriers and facilitators experienced in delivering alcohol screening and brief interventions in community pharmacy: a qualitative evidence synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Following increases in deaths due to alcohol during the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been renewed calls to increase resources in alcohol screening and brief intervention (SBI). Research has shown that community pharmacy could be a promising setting for SBI. This review aimed to investigate the barriers and facilitators to SBI delivery in community pharmacy to inform its further development. METHODS: A systematic search of four databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and PsycINFO) was conducted in October 2021 to identify relevant published qualitative or mixed-method studies. Relevant qualitative data were extracted from the included studies and a framework synthesis was performed using the Capability-Opportunity-Motivation-Behaviour (COM-B) model. RESULTS: Two thousand two hundred and ten articles were screened and nine studies were included in the review (seven in the United Kingdom and two in Australia). Identified barriers and facilitators to delivering SBI corresponded to all components of the COM-B model. Facilitators included non-confrontational communication skills, aligning SBI with existing pharmacy services and pharmacist role legitimacy. Barriers included multiple demands on staff time, a lack of staff experience with screening tools, and staff concerns of causing offence. Using the Behaviour Change Wheel (BCW), we propose five elements of a pharmacy SBI to address identified barriers. CONCLUSIONS: Research into SBI in community pharmacy is limited in comparison to other healthcare settings and this review provides an understanding of the barriers and facilitators to the delivery of SBI in community pharmacy from a behavioural perspective. Through the use of COM-B and BCW, our findings could inform the development of future pharmacy-based SBI.

Lessons from the Gateway programme, aimed at improving health and life chances for young people committing low-level offences: a qualitative evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Young people who commit criminal offences are often affected by mental health issues, including drug and alcohol misuse, with many leading chaotic lifestyles. Gateway was a pioneering court-diversion programme aimed to reduce reoffending and improve the health and wellbeing of people aged 18-24 years who had been questioned for a low-level offence. The Gateway Study consisted of a pragmatic, parallel-group, superiority randomised controlled trial (RCT) of the programme's effectiveness, and its qualitative evaluation. We aimed to determine barriers and enablers for implementation of Gateway and recruitment into the RCT. METHODS: We evaluated the implementation of Gateway, a 16-week conditional caution designed by Hampshire Constabulary and delivered predominantly by third sector organisations. Following a needs assessment, young people received individual support from a Gateway navigator and attended self-development workshops. Recruitment into the RCT took place across four sites across Hampshire and Isle of Wight, UK. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with Gateway stakeholders over three time periods in 2018-22, with additional timepoints in the first time period. Purposive samples of Gateway clients and recruiters, as well as all of Gateway staff, were interviewed. Thematic analysis was applied, with an inductive and predominantly reflexive approach, for each group of participants in each time period. FINDINGS: Between Dec 19, 2018, and May 3, 2022, qualitative interviews were held with 28 Gateway clients, 17 Gateway project staff, and 13 police officers and civilian staff who acted as recruiters into the programme and RCT. Various themes related to engagement were identified, with multiple subthemes and unique insights. The core themes can be classified as follows (with examples of factors influencing engagement): (1) setup for Gateway delivery and RCT recruitment (eg, multi-agency partnerships, physical locations, training); (2) young people's lifestyles and needs (eg, personal circumstances, pre-existing expectations, attitude towards Gateway); (3) priorities and culture in the organisations (eg, workload priorities, job satisfaction, inter-stakeholder relationships). INTERPRETATION: The Gateway Study was a unique endeavour to gather evidence for a potentially life-changing intervention for an underserved population. Engaging vulnerable young people and the police in research comes with its own, specific challenges. The insights shared as a result of this evaluation can inform the design of interventions and studies that target similarly vulnerable people or are based in similar settings. Awareness of the potential barriers and facilitators can help public health researchers and practitioners plan accordingly and prevent or mitigate some of the low-engagement issues. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR).

The impact of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and liver fibrosis on adverse clinical outcomes and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease: a prospective cohort study using the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) frequently co-exist. We assess the impact of having NAFLD on adverse clinical outcomes and all-cause mortality for people with CKD. METHODS: A total of 18,073 UK Biobank participants identified to have CKD (eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 or albuminuria > 3 mg/mmol) were prospectively followed up by electronic linkage to hospital and death records. Cox-regression estimated the hazard ratios (HR) associated with having NAFLD (elevated hepatic steatosis index or ICD-code) and NAFLD fibrosis (elevated fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score or NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS)) on cardiovascular events (CVE), progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: 56.2% of individuals with CKD had NAFLD at baseline, and 3.0% and 7.7% had NAFLD fibrosis according to a FIB-4 > 2.67 and NFS ≥ 0.676, respectively. The median follow-up was 13 years. In univariate analysis, NAFLD was associated with an increased risk of CVE (HR 1.49 [1.38-1.60]), all-cause mortality (HR 1.22 [1.14-1.31]) and ESRD (HR 1.26 [1.02-1.54]). Following multivariable adjustment, NAFLD remained an independent risk factor for CVE overall (HR 1.20 [1.11-1.30], p < 0.0001), but not ACM or ESRD. In univariate analysis, elevated NFS and FIB-4 scores were associated with increased risk of CVE (HR 2.42 [2.09-2.80] and 1.64 [1.30-2.08]) and all-cause mortality (HR 2.82 [2.48-3.21] and 1.82 [1.47-2.24]); the NFS score was also associated with ESRD (HR 5.15 [3.52-7.52]). Following full adjustment, the NFS remained associated with an increased incidence of CVE (HR 1.19 [1.01-1.40]) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.31 [1.13-1.52]). CONCLUSIONS: In people with CKD, NAFLD is associated with an increased risk of CVE, and the NAFLD fibrosis score is associated with an elevated risk of CVE and worse survival.

The mental wellbeing of prison staff in England during the COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-sectional study.

Background: COVID-19 is likely to have had an impact on the mental wellbeing of prison staff because of the high risk for infectious disease outbreaks in prisons and the pre-existing high burden of mental health issues among staff. Methods: A cross-sectional study of staff within 26 prisons in England was carried out between 20th July 2020 and 2nd October 2020. Mental wellbeing was measured using the Short-version of Warwick-Edinburgh Wellbeing Scale (SWEMWBS). Staff wellbeing was compared to that of the English population using indirectly standardised data from the Health Survey for England 2010-13 and a one-sample t-test. Multivariate linear regression modelling explored associations with mental wellbeing score. Results: Two thousand five hundred and thirty-four individuals were included (response rate 22.2%). The mean age was 44 years, 53% were female, and 93% were white. The sample mean SWEMWBS score was 23.84 and the standardised population mean score was 23.57. The difference in means was statistically significant (95% CI 0.09-0.46), but not of a clinically meaningful level. The multivariate linear regression model was adjusted for age category, sex, ethnicity, smoking status, occupation, and prison service region. Higher wellbeing was significantly associated with older age, male sex, Black/Black British ethnicity, never having smoked, working within the health staff team, and working in certain prison regions. Interpretation: Unexpectedly, prison staff wellbeing as measured by SWEMWBS was similar to that of the general population. Reasons for this are unclear but could include the reduction in violence within prisons since the start of the pandemic. Qualitative research across a diverse sample of prison settings would enrich understanding of staff wellbeing within the pandemic.

Testing to sustain hepatitis C elimination targets in people who inject drugs: A network-based model.

Little is known about the level of testing required to sustain elimination of hepatitis C (HCV), once achieved. In this study, we model the testing coverage required to maintain HCV elimination in an injecting network of people who inject drugs (PWID). We test the hypothesis that network-based strategies are a superior approach to deliver testing. We created a dynamic injecting network structure connecting 689 PWID based on empirical data. The primary outcome was the testing coverage required per month to maintain prevalence at the elimination threshold over 5 years. We compared four testing strategies. Without any testing or treatment provision, the prevalence of HCV increased from the elimination threshold (11.68%) to a mean of 25.4% (SD 2.96%) over the 5-year period. To maintain elimination with random testing, on average, 4.96% (SD 0.83%) of the injecting network needs to be tested per month. However, with a 'bring your friends' strategy, this was reduced to 3.79% (SD 0.64%) of the network (p < .001). The addition of contact tracing improved the efficiency of both strategies. In conclusion, we report that network-based approaches to testing such as 'bring a friend' initiatives and contact tracing lower the level of testing coverage required to maintain elimination.

Supporting and enabling health research in a local authority (SERLA): an exploratory study.

BACKGROUND: The use of research evidence to underpin public health practice and policy decisions in local government is strongly promoted but its implementation has not been straightforward. This study aimed to explore the factors, relationships and processes that contribute towards accessing, using, and generating research evidence that is relevant to local authority public health and social care and shapes its practice. METHODS: Semi-structured individual interviews with elected councillors, officers directly involved with public health and social care and with community members from one urban unitary authority in South England were conducted. Interviews were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim and thematically analysed. RESULTS: Fourteen participants took part in the semi-structured interviews. Local knowledge and evidence are prioritised, and anecdotal evidence is valued. The Director of Public Health was the principal source of information and support. Academics were rarely mentioned as information sources, and their involvement was ad hoc. The use of research evidence varied between individuals and departments, with wider engagement among public health specialists. Key barriers to the use of research evidence included access (not reported among public health professionals), research timeliness, local applicability, competence in finding and interpreting evidence and the role of research evidence within a political context. Public health and adult social care teams are not currently research active or research ready. Major barriers exist due to financial constraints and the socio-political context of local authorities. COVID-19 disrupted siloed ways of working, strengthening and opening potential collaborations within the local authority. This changed perspectives about the value of research but is likely time-limited unless underpinned by sustainable funding. CONCLUSION: Creating strategic level roles within local government to work with the Director of Public Health to champion the research agenda and embedding researchers within and across teams would build capacity for local authorities to sustainably co-create, undertake, and use evidence to better inform future actions.

Determining the Prevalence and Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Prisons in England: Protocol for a Repeated Panel Survey and Enhanced Outbreak Study.

BACKGROUND: There are over 80,000 people imprisoned in England and Wales in 117 prisons. The management of the COVID-19 pandemic presents particular challenges in this setting where confined, crowded, and poorly ventilated conditions facilitate the rapid spread of infectious diseases. OBJECTIVE: The COVID-19 in Prison Study aims to examine the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in prisons in England in order to inform public health policy and practice during the pandemic and recovery. The primary objective is to estimate the proportion of positive tests of SARS-CoV-2 infection among residents and staff within selected prisons. The secondary objectives include estimating the incidence rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection and examining how the proportion of positive tests and the incidence rate vary among individual, institutional, and system level factors. METHODS: Phase 1 comprises a repeated panel survey of prison residents and staff in a representative sample of 28 prisons across England. All residents and staff in the study prisons are eligible for inclusion. Participants will be tested for SARS-CoV-2 using a nasopharyngeal swab twice (6 weeks apart). Staff will also be tested for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Phase 2 focuses on SARS-CoV-2 infection in prisons with recognized COVID-19 outbreaks. Any prison in England will be eligible to participate if an outbreak is declared. In 3 outbreak prisons, all participating staff and residents will be tested for SARS-CoV-2 antigens at the following 3 timepoints: as soon as possible after the outbreak is declared (day 0), 7 days later (day 7), and at day 28. They will be swabbed twice (a nasal swab for lateral flow device testing and a nasopharyngeal swab for polymerase chain reaction testing). Testing will be done by external contractors. Data will also be collected on individual, prison level, and community factors. Data will be stored and handled at the University of Southampton and Public Health England. Summary statistics will summarize the prison and participant characteristics. For the primary objective, simple proportions of individuals testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 and incidence rates will be calculated. Linear regression will examine the individual, institutional, system, and community factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection within prisons. RESULTS: The UK Government's Department for Health and Social Care funds the study. Data collection started on July 20, 2020, and will end on May 31, 2021. As of May 2021, we had enrolled 4192 staff members and 6496 imprisoned people in the study. Data analysis has started, and we expect to publish the initial findings in summer/autumn 2021. The main ethical consideration is the inclusion of prisoners, who are vulnerable participants. CONCLUSIONS: This study will provide unique data to inform the public health management of SARS-CoV-2 in prisons. Its findings will be of relevance to health policy makers and practitioners working in prisons. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/30749.

All coffee types decrease the risk of adverse clinical outcomes in chronic liver disease: a UK Biobank study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic liver disease (CLD) is a growing cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, particularly in low to middle-income countries with high disease burden and limited treatment availability. Coffee consumption has been linked with lower rates of CLD, but little is known about the effects of different coffee types, which vary in chemical composition. This study aimed to investigate associations of coffee consumption, including decaffeinated, instant and ground coffee, with chronic liver disease outcomes. METHODS: A total of 494,585 UK Biobank participants with known coffee consumption and electronic linkage to hospital, death and cancer records were included in this study. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of incident CLD, incident CLD or steatosis, incident hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death from CLD according to coffee consumption of any type as well as for decaffeinated, instant and ground coffee individually. RESULTS: Among 384,818 coffee drinkers and 109,767 non-coffee drinkers, there were 3600 cases of CLD, 5439 cases of CLD or steatosis, 184 cases of HCC and 301 deaths from CLD during a median follow-up of 10.7 years. Compared to non-coffee drinkers, coffee drinkers had lower adjusted HRs of CLD (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.72-0.86), CLD or steatosis (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.75-0.86), death from CLD (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.39-0.67) and HCC (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.54-1.19). The associations for decaffeinated, instant and ground coffee individually were similar to all types combined. CONCLUSION: The finding that all types of coffee are protective against CLD is significant given the increasing incidence of CLD worldwide and the potential of coffee as an intervention to prevent CLD onset or progression.

The Enhanced Liver Fibrosis test maintains its diagnostic and prognostic performance in alcohol-related liver disease: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol is the main cause of chronic liver disease. The Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test is a serological biomarker for fibrosis staging in chronic liver disease, however its utility in alcohol-related liver disease warrants further validation. We assessed the diagnostic and prognostic performance of ELF in alcohol-related liver disease. METHODS: Observational cohort study assessing paired ELF and histology from 786 tertiary care patients with chronic liver disease due to alcohol (n = 81) and non-alcohol aetiologies (n = 705). Prognostic data were available for 64 alcohol patients for a median of 6.4 years. Multiple ELF cut-offs were assessed to determine diagnostic utility in moderate fibrosis and cirrhosis. Survival data were assessed to determine the ability of ELF to predict liver related events and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: ELF identified cirrhosis and moderate fibrosis in alcohol-related liver disease independently of aminotransferase levels with areas under receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.895 (95% CI 0.823-0.968) and 0.923 (95% CI 0.866-0.981) respectively, which were non-inferior to non-alcohol aetiologies. The overall performance of ELF was assessed using the Obuchowski method: in alcohol = 0.934 (95% CI 0.908-0.960); non-alcohol = 0.907 (95% CI 0.895-0.919). Using ELF < 9.8 to exclude and ≧ 10.5 to diagnose cirrhosis, 87.7% of alcohol cases could have avoided biopsy, with sensitivity of 91% and specificity of 85%. A one-unit increase in ELF was associated with a 2.6 (95% CI 1.55-4.31, p < 0.001) fold greater odds of cirrhosis at baseline and 2.0-fold greater risk of a liver related event within 6 years (95% CI 1.39-2.99, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: ELF accurately stages liver fibrosis independently of transaminase elevations as a marker of inflammation and has superior prognostic performance to biopsy in alcohol-related liver disease.

Injecting network structure determines the most efficient strategy to achieve Hepatitis C elimination in people who inject drugs.

Transmission of Hepatitis C (HCV) continues via sharing of injection equipment between people who inject drugs (PWID). Network-based modelling studies have produced conflicting results about whether random treatment is preferable to targeting treatment at PWID with multiple partners. We hypothesise that differences in the modelled injecting network structure produce this heterogeneity. The study aimed to test how changing network structure affects HCV transmission and treatment effects. We created three dynamic injecting network structures connecting 689 PWID (UK-net, AUS-net and USA-net) based on published empirical data. We modelled HCV in the networks and at 5 years compared prevalence of HCV 1) with no treatment, 2) with randomly targeted treatment and 3) with treatment targeted at PWID with the most injecting partnerships (degree-based treatment). HCV prevalence at 5 years without treatment differed significantly between the three networks (UK-net (42.8%) vs. AUS-net (38.2%), p < 0.0001 and vs. USA-net (54.0%), p < 0.0001). In the treatment scenarios UK-net and AUS-net showed a benefit of degree-based treatment with a 5-year prevalence of 1.0% vs. 9.6% p < 0.0001 and 0.15% vs. 0.44%, p < 0.0001. USA-net showed no significant difference (29.3% vs. 29.2%, p = 0.0681). Degree-based treatment was optimised with low prevalence, moderate treatment coverage conditions whereas random treatment was optimised in low treatment coverage, high prevalence conditions. In conclusion, injecting network structure determines the transmission rate of HCV and the most efficient treatment strategy. In real-world injecting network structures, the benefit of targeting HCV treatment at individuals with multiple injecting partnerships may have been underestimated.

Scoping review of mental health in prisons through the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the extent, nature and quality of literature on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mental health of imprisoned people and prison staff. DESIGN: Scoping review. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Global Health, Cochrane, PsycINFO, PsychExtra, Web of Science and Scopus were searched for any paper from 2019 onwards that focused on the mental health impact of COVID-19 on imprisoned people and prison staff. A grey literature search focused on international and government sources and professional bodies representing healthcare, public health and prison staff was also performed. We also performed hand searching of the reference lists of included studies. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTION OF STUDIES: All papers, regardless of study design, were included if they examined the mental health of imprisoned people or prison staff specifically during the COVID-19 pandemic. Imprisoned people could be of any age and from any countries. All languages were included. Two independent reviewers quality assessed appropriate papers. RESULTS: Of 647 articles found, 83 were eligible for inclusion, the majority (58%) of which were opinion pieces. The articles focused on the challenges to prisoner mental health. Fear of COVID-19, the impact of isolation, discontinuation of prison visits and reduced mental health services were all likely to have an adverse effect on the mental well-being of imprisoned people. The limited research and poor quality of articles included mean that the findings are not conclusive. However, they suggest a significant adverse impact on the mental health and well-being of those who live and work in prisons. CONCLUSIONS: It is key to address the mental health impacts of the pandemic on people who live and work in prisons. These findings are discussed in terms of implications for getting the balance between infection control imperatives and the fundamental human rights of prison populations.

Systematic review: Accuracy of the enhanced liver fibrosis test for diagnosing advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The rising incidence of chronic liver disease (CLD) has increased the need for early recognition. This systematic review assesses the diagnostic accuracy of the enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test in cases of advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis due to multiple etiologies in at-risk populations. METHODS: Studies evaluating the ELF accuracy in identifying advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis, defined as METAVIR stage F ≥ 3 and F = 4 or equivalent, in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), alcohol liver disease (ALD), or viral hepatitis were included. Liver biopsy was used as the reference standard. Medline and Embase databases were searched. The QUADAS-2 tool was used as a framework to assess risk of bias and applicability. The area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) was extracted as a summary measure of diagnostic accuracy. RESULTS: Thirty-six studies were included: 11 hepatitis C, 4 hepatitis B, 9 NAFLD, 2 ALD, and 10 mixed. The ELF test showed good diagnostic performance in detecting advanced fibrosis in patients with viral hepatitis (AUROC 0.69 to 0.98) and excellent performance in NAFLD (AUROC 0.78 to 0.97) and ALD (AUROC from 0.92 to 0.94). There is also evidence of good diagnostic performance for detecting cirrhosis in patients with viral hepatitis (AUROC 0.63 to 0.99), good performance in NAFLD (AUROC 0.85 to 0.92), and excellent performance in patients with ALD (AUROC 0.93 to 0.94). CONCLUSION: This systematic review supports the use of the ELF test across a range of CLD as a possible alternative to liver biopsy in selected cases.

The combined effect of alcohol and body mass index on risk of chronic liver disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Increasingly populations are both overweight/obese and consume alcohol. The risk of liver disease from the combination of these factors is unclear. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to address this important gap in evidence. Protocol registered with PROSPERO(CRD42016046508). METHODS: We performed electronic searches of Ovid Medline, Embase Classic + Embase, until 17th June 2020 for cohort studies of adults without pre-existing liver disease. Primary outcome was morbidity/mortality from chronic liver disease. Exposures were alcohol consumption categorised as within or above UK recommended limits (14 units/112 g per week) and BMI categorised as normal, overweight or obese. Non-drinkers were excluded. A Poisson regression log-linear model was used to test for statistical interaction between alcohol and BMI and to conduct a one-stage meta-analysis. RESULTS: Searches identified 3129 studies-16 were eligible. Of these, nine cohorts (1,121,514 participants) had data available and were included in the analysis. The Poisson model showed no significant statistical interaction between alcohol consumption and BMI on the risk of chronic liver disease. Compared to normal weight participants drinking alcohol within UK recommended limits, relative risk of chronic liver disease in overweight participants drinking above limits was 3.32 (95% CI 2.88 to 3.83) and relative risk in obese participants drinking above limits was 5.39 (95% CI 4.62 to 6.29). CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis demonstrated a significantly increased risk of chronic liver disease in participants who were both overweight/obese and consumed alcohol above UK recommended limits. This evidence should inform advice given to patients and risk stratification by healthcare professionals.

Systematic review of the impact of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease on mortality and adverse clinical outcomes for individuals with chronic kidney disease.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate if non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) impacts mortality and adverse outcomes for individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD). DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, EMBASE and Web of Science were searched up to 1 February 2020 with no restriction on the earliest date. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES: Observational cohort studies that reported either the risk of all-cause mortality, incidence of non-fatal cardiovascular events (CVE) or progression of kidney disease among adults with established CKD who have NAFLD compared with those without. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Two reviewers extracted data and assessed bias independently. RESULTS: Of 2604 records identified, 3 studies were included (UK (n=852), South Korea (n=1525) and USA (n=1413)). All were judged to have a low or moderate risk of bias. Data were insufficient for meta-analysis. Two studies examined the influence of NAFLD on all-cause mortality. One reported a significant positive association for NAFLD with all-cause mortality for individuals with CKD (p<0.05) (cardiovascular-related mortality p=ns), which was lost following adjustment for metabolic risk factors; the second reported no effect in adjusted and unadjusted models. The latter was the only study to report outcomes for non-fatal CVEs and observed NAFLD to be an independent risk factor for this (propensity-matched HR=2.00, p=0.02). Two studies examined CKD progression; in one adjusted rate of percentage decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate per year was found to be increased in those with NAFLD (p=0.002), whereas the other found no significant difference. CONCLUSIONS: Few studies have examined the influence of NAFLD on prognosis and major adverse clinical outcomes within the CKD population. The studies identified were diverse in design and results were conflicting. This should be a focus for future research as both conditions continue to rise in prevalence and have end-stage events associated with significant health and economic costs. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020166508.

The Enhanced Liver Fibrosis test is associated with liver-related outcomes in postmenopausal women with risk factors for liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Chronic liver disease (CLD) is usually asymptomatic but earlier detection is critical to permit life-saving interventions for those at risk due to high alcohol consumption and increased body mass index (BMI). The aim of this study was to estimate the association between the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test and liver-related events (LRE) and its performance in predicting LRE in postmenopausal women with risk factors in a nested case-control study within the United Kingdom Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). METHODS: In a cohort of 95,126 we performed a case-control study measuring ELF in blinded samples from 173 participants with self-reported high alcohol use and / or BMI ≥25 kg/m2 comprising all 58 cases who developed LRE and 115 controls matched for age, alcohol and BMI who did not develop LRE during median follow-up of 8.5 years. RESULTS: Using Cox regression at an ELF threshold of 10.51 hazard ratios (HR) for LRE were 4.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.37-10.03) (unadjusted model) and 4.62 (95% CI 2.12-10.08) (adjusted for deprivation and self-reported hypertension, heart disease, hypercholesterolaemia and diabetes). At a threshold of 9.8 HR for LRE were 2.21 (95% CI 1.22-3.97) (unadjusted model) and 2.18 (95% CI 1.19-4.01) (adjusted). ELF was evaluated as a time dependent variable by generating time-dependent Cox models; HRs at an ELF threshold of 10.51 were 1.94 (95% CI 1.10-3.39) (unadjusted) and 2.05 (95% CI 1.16-3.64) (adjusted) and at a threshold of 9.8 HRs were 1.85 (95% CI 1.09-3.15) (unadjusted) and 1.80 (95% CI 1.04-3.13) (adjusted). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for recruitment ELF predicting LRE was 0.58 (95% CI 0.49-0.68), and for second subsequent ELF 0.61 (95% CI 0.52-0.71). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the association between ELF and CLD in postmenopausal women with risk factors for liver disease, creating the opportunity to intervene to reduce liver-related mortality and morbidity. Although larger studies are required, these results demonstrate the potential of ELF as a prognostic tool in health checks in primary care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is nested in UKCTOCS. UKCTOCS is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN22488978. Registered 06/04/2000.

The testing of people with any risk factor for hepatitis C in community pharmacies is cost-effective.

New antiviral drugs with high efficacy mean the hepatitis C virus (HCV) can now be eliminated. To achieve this, it is necessary to identify undiagnosed cases of HCV. However, the costs of testing should be considered when judging the overall cost-effectiveness of treatment. This study describes the cost-effectiveness of a community pharmacy testing service in a population of people at risk of HCV living on the Isle of Wight (United Kingdom). Dry blood spot testing was conducted in anyone with a known risk factor for HCV in 20 community pharmacies. The outcomes and costs were entered into a Markov model. Cost and health utilities from the model were used to calculate an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). In 24 months, 186 tests were conducted, 13 were positive for HCV RNA and six of these (46%) received treatment during the follow-up period. All achieved a sustained virological response at 3 months. The overall cost of the testing and treatment intervention was £242 183, and the ICER for the service was £3689 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. If screening had been restricted to just people with a history of injecting drug use (PWID) the ICER would have been £4865 per QALY gained. The service was effective at identifying people with HCV infection, and despite the additional cost of targeted testing, its cost-effectiveness was below the commonly accepted thresholds. In this setting, restricting targeted testing to PWID would not improve the cost-effectiveness.

Prioritising Hepatitis C treatment in people with multiple injecting partners maximises prevention: A real-world network study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe an injecting network of PWID living in an isolated community on the Isle of Wight (UK) and the results of a agent-based simulation, testing the effect of Hepatitis C (HCV) treatment on transmission. METHOD: People who inject drugs (PWID) were identified via respondent driven sampling and recruited to a network and bio-behavioural survey. The injecting network they described formed the baseline population and potential transmission pathways in an agent-based simulation of HCV transmission and the effects of treatment over 12 months. RESULTS: On average each PWID had 2.6 injecting partners (range 0-14) and 137 were connected into a single component. HCV in the network was associated with a higher proportion of positive injecting partners (p = 0.003) and increasing age (p = 0.011). The treatment of well-connected PWID led to significantly fewer new infections of HCV than treating at random (10 vs. 7, p<0.001). In all scenarios less than one individual was re-infected. CONCLUSION: In our model the preferential treatment of well-connected PWID maximised treatment as prevention. In the real-world setting, targeting treatment to actively injecting PWID, with multiple injecting partners may therefore represent the most efficient elimination strategy for HCV.

Coffee Consumption and Kidney Function: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, with limited strategies for prevention and treatment. Coffee is a complex mixture of chemicals, and consumption has been associated with mostly beneficial health outcomes. This work aimed to determine the impact of coffee consumption on kidney function. STUDY DESIGN: Genome-wide association study (GWAS) and Mendelian randomization. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: UK Biobank baseline data were used for a coffee consumption GWAS and included 227,666 participants. CKDGen Consortium data were used for kidney outcomes and included 133,814 participants (12,385 cases of CKD) of mostly European ancestry across various countries. EXPOSURE: Coffee consumption. OUTCOMES: Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), CKD GFR categories 3 to 5 (G3-G5; eGFR<60mL/min/1.73m2), and albuminuria. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: GWAS to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with coffee consumption in UK Biobank and use of those SNPs in Mendelian randomization analyses of coffee consumption and kidney outcomes in CKDGen. RESULTS: 2,126 SNPs were associated with coffee consumption (P<5×10-8), 25 of which were independent and available in CKDGen. Drinking an extra cup of coffee per day conferred a protective effect against CKD G3-G5 (OR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.72-0.98; P=0.03) and albuminuria (OR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.67-0.97; P=0.02). An extra cup was also associated with higher eGFR (ß=0.022; P=1.6×10-6) after removal of 3 SNPs responsible for significant heterogeneity (Cochran Q P = 3.5×10-15). LIMITATIONS: Assays used to measure creatinine and albumin varied between studies that contributed data and a sex-specific definition was used for albuminuria rather than KDIGO guideline recommendations. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence of a beneficial effect of coffee on kidney function. Given widespread coffee consumption and limited interventions to prevent CKD incidence and progression, this could have significant implications for global public health in view of the increasing burden of CKD worldwide.